By Michael S. Derby and Ann Saphir
NEW YORK (Reuters) -New York Federal Reserve President John Williams said on Monday that monetary policy is “well positioned” for what the economy might do this year, as he acknowledged there are risks that inflation could once again heat up.
“Monetary policy is moderately restrictive,” Williams said in an interview with Yahoo Finance, with the current setting of interest rates “putting some downward pressure on inflation.”
Williams added that while he cannot predict when the U.S. central bank might change the current level of interest rates, keeping it in place “for some time” will allow officials to study incoming data and decide what they need to do next.
Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, speaking separately in an interview with CNBC, said the timing of any rate cuts will depend on what happens with inflation. He noted that while he is nervous that the Trump administration’s tariffs will push up prices, he is also worried the levies could hurt the job market.
“Call me nervous on both,” Barkin said, adding that “there’s a lot of uncertainty right now, and I think that makes the case for wait and see how this plays out.”
The two central bankers weighed in at a time of high economic uncertainty as President Donald Trump continues to press forward with disruptive shifts in trade policy while at the same time downsizing the federal government, complicating any effort to gain clarity about the outlook for the economy.
That uncertainty proved to be a defining characteristic of the Fed’s rate-setting meeting earlier this month, where policymakers held the central bank’s benchmark overnight interest rate steady in the 4.25%-4.50% range, while maintaining hopes they’ll be able to cut rates later this year.
RECESSION RISKS
The Fed’s outlook has been complicated by the fact that Trump’s tariffs, which could be significantly expanded on Wednesday, are almost certain to drive up inflation in the near term, with big questions about how long those gains might last.
At the same time, uncertainty is complicating businesses’ efforts to plan and invest and is rapidly and dramatically souring consumers’ attitudes.
All of this is leading to rising worries about an economic downturn. On Sunday, Goldman Sachs forecasters said they will raise their recession probability to 35% from 20%, noting “the sharp recent deterioration in household and business confidence, and statements from White House officials indicating greater willingness to tolerate near-term economic weakness in pursuit of their policies.”
