A staple of Donald Trump’s 2024 campaign trail rhetoric returned this week with a version of 20% “blanket” tariffs now apparently being considered as the president struggles to fill in the details of his “Liberation Day” promises.
The potential move, applying to all or most goods imported to the United States, would represent a dramatic pivot of sorts for the president amid implementation worries and political complications that have dogged the White House’s long-promised plan for more specific country-by-country duties.
But it would also mark a return to an approach to trade that Trump has long championed despite varied warnings from economists that it could have the deepest of consequences for the US economy.
The Yale Budget Lab Tuesday tabulated that a move toward true blanket tariffs would stoke inflation by more than 2% and — assuming no countermeasures from the Federal Reserve — create a loss of buying power of $3,400-$4,200 per household.
The researchers added that 20% duties, if added on top of existing tariffs, would make the average effective US tariff rate the highest since 1872 at 32.8%.
A previous estimate from the Tax Foundation has also put the cost in the thousands and found that 20% blanket duties would represent an average tax increase on US households of $2,045.
Read more: What Trump’s tariffs mean for the economy and your wallet
Even studies from Trump-friendly groups — such as one issued during the 2024 campaign by a group called the Coalition for a Prosperous America — acknowledge that tariffs would raise consumer prices.
Thus far, there are signs from media reports that 20% duties are being considered by the Trump team, including a report Tuesday from the Washington Post that detailed the latest machinations.
Some in the administration are openly pushing for aggressive revenue goals where the math would likely require some flavor of universal duties.
On Sunday, senior White House trade and manufacturing counselor Peter Navarro said the Trump 2.0 tariffs could add around $700 billion a year annually to US coffers — combining $100 billion from recently announced 25% auto tariffs to $600 billion more from other duties.
Such an ambitious top-line number can’t be achieved without a wide array of duties. 20% blanket tariffs, one of the most aggressive options to raise revenue yet, are estimated to raise only about half the amount floated by Navarro, assuming that other countries retaliate.
A 20% blanket tariff rate would represent a dramatic turn for Trump back to outsized campaign trail promises of his stewardship of the US economy at a delicate time for markets.
