There is renewed focus this week on what could happen to Republicans in 2026 if President Trump’s new tariffs don’t resonate with voters: a repeat of 2018.
That was the year the GOP was routed and lost over 40 House seats in a midterm election that saw Trump’s first wave of tariffs a key factor among an electorate that had soured on Republican control of Washington.
Tariffs will also clearly be a factor again as Trump touts a “Liberation Day” tariff plan and is imposing duties that overshadow the economic effects of his entire first term.
Read more: The latest news and updates on Trump’s tariffs
A sign on Trump’s trade war is seen behind behind Democratic Senator Tim Kaine at the U.S. Capitol on April 1. (Kayla Bartkowski/Getty Images) ·Kayla Bartkowski via Getty Images
Republicans keenly remember and GOP lawmakers are already worried about the effect of duties on their electoral prospects in addition to other headwinds possibly at play — such as the role of Musk.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent even went so far this week as to reportedly reassure nervous lawmakers that this week’s announcement will be the highest tariffs will go.
But voters could feel the effects of Trump 2.0 tariffs more widely, with duties already set to have multiple times the economic effect of Trump’s first-term actions if left in place.
“While it’s tempting to suggest that there will be a linear relationship,” said one of the co-authors of that 2024 study, Dartmouth professor Emily Blanchard was quick to add that an impact is in the offing but it could be unpredictable.
Read more: What Trump’s tariffs mean for the economy and your wallet
Indeed, the analysis from Blanchard and her colleagues of 2018 election results found that Republican House candidates who ran for reelection that year in counties that were the most exposed to tariffs and retaliation — rural counties were generally the hardest hit in that go around — saw a bigger than average drop in support.
This time around, the economic effects are again likely to be sizable but could take a different shape, as a Trump 2.0 affinity for blanket tariffs is likely to be felt more directly by American consumers.
All told, others are willing to suggest that Trump’s 2.0 tariffs plans could have a decisive impact when all Americans head to the polls next year.
“The reality is that if the administration doesn’t change course, Republicans can kiss goodbye to their majority,” said Veronique de Rugy, a senior research fellow with libertarian and free market leaning Mercatus Center.
In a conversation, she suggested that the effect could be more sizable this time than in 2018. After all, the 2024 election was about lowering prices, but Trump has turned his focus on tariffs since taking over, which could instead raise them.
“I don’t think Americans want to go back in time,” she added.
President Donald Trump appears alongside then-Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and House Speaker Paul Ryan in September 2018 just ahead of elections that saw Ryan lose his speaker’s gavel. (NICHOLAS KAMM/AFP via Getty Images) ·NICHOLAS KAMM via Getty Images
The study from Blanchard and two colleagues found a variety of issues played key roles in 2018 in addition to tariffs.
They found that healthcare — amid Republican efforts that year to repeal the Affordable Care Act — and taxes played a similar role as tariffs in shifting voting patterns away from the GOP.
On that tax front, a 2017 Republican effort to limit state and local tax (SALT) deductions apparently left a similarly sour taste in voters’ mouths.
By 2020, the researchers found, the tariff effects had vanished and Trump did not pay a political price in his reelection bid.
But the different and broader shape of Trump’s new wave of tariffs means it could be received by voters differently.
“It was less visible,” Blanchard said of the effect of tariffs in 2018 on American pocketbooks. Those duties tended to be focused on components from China that often only indirectly filtered into consumer prices.
The exception, perhaps, in Trump 1.0 was a focus on washing machine tariffs, which saw prices rise for not only washing machines but also dryers.
This time around, tariffs on Mexico could raise the prices of food at grocery stores, and auto tariffs, also set to go into effect this week, could raise the sticker price of a new car by thousands of dollars.
Because of the bigger hit to consumers, Blanchard said that tariffs this time “are going to hit low and middle-income household [budgets] harder than high-income households'” — a different dynamic than in 2018. “It’s really important to recognize that all [households] will face headwinds from tariffs this time even as some receive tailwinds” in the form of new protections.
The focus on tariffs, of course, comes after a series of special elections showed Republican weaknesses, with Tuesday night’s results providing plenty of reasons for concern among Republicans.
GOP wins in two Florida House districts came at distinctly narrower margins than Trump’s win there just a few months back.
The Wisconsin race was immediately seen as a rebuke to Musk after he helped make it the most expensive judicial election in US history.
Billionaire businessman Elon Musk arrives for a town hall wearing a cheesehead hat Green Bay, Wisconsin on March 30. (Scott Olson/Getty Images) ·Scott Olson via Getty Images
“These results show a clear pattern of thermostatic backlash against the majority party — which is the strong historical regularity in American politics,” Tobin Marcus, the head of US policy and politics at Wolfe Research, wrote in a note on Wednesday morning.
The effect of coming tariffs is yet to be seen but Marcus added this week’s voting results “keep the possibility of a wave-like 2026 environment in play.”
Ben Werschkul is a Washington correspondent for Yahoo Finance.
Click here for political news related to business and money policies that will shape tomorrow’s stock prices
Read the latest financial and business news from Yahoo Finance
