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Tariff uncertainty continued to wreak havoc on global markets as businesses and investors braced for tariffs that are expected to lift the U.S. tariff rate to its highest level in more than a century.
That uncertainty is likely to remain high when S&P 500 companies begin reporting first-quarter results later this week. Wall Street analysts have been increasingly cautious with their outlooks, and some market watchers are forecasting a sharp drop in the number of companies issuing guidance for the current quarter and the remainder of the year.
The tariff outlook remained murky Monday, with U.S. stocks wavering between gains and losses as Trump threatened to slap an additional 50% tariff on Chinese goods in response to China’s retaliatory tariffs. The White House also today quashed rumors that Trump was mulling a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs.
The tariffs outlined by Trump last week could scramble global supply chains, raise the risk of a recession, and stoke inflation. In a sign of the times, 421 sell-side broker reports published last week mentioned the word “chaos,” more than twice the prior week’s total, according to AlphaSense. In just the last two days, “chaos” has cropped up in more than 100 such reports.
Companies may choose caution as they report results; ones that have already offered first-quarter guidance have been increasingly wary.
“We will see an upcoming earnings season for 1Q in which it would not surprise us if many companies/mgmt teams did not give guidance,” Wedbush analysts wrote last week. They expect this coming earnings season to resemble early 2020 when uncertainty about the spread of Covid-19 and the longevity of lockdowns caused the number of S&P 500 companies issuing guidance to plummet by more than 50% year-over-year, according to data from FactSet Research.
Market participants are already struggling to make sense of Trump’s tariffs and the impact they could have on their investments. Less guidance would likely reduce investors’ visibility even further, making it more difficult to model earnings growth and, thus, value debt and equity.
“At a minimum, we will likely see companies give more conservative guidance or wider ranges than normal for guidance,” said John Butters, Vice President and Senior Earnings Analyst at FactSet.
White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett on Sunday said more than 50 countries had initiated talks with the administration, seeking relief from the tariffs set to take effect on Wednesday.
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