Major U.S. banks begin reporting quarterly results on Friday against a backdrop of tariff turmoil that has roiled the markets and the economy.
Analysts said that while tariffs may not directly affect the banks themselves, they likely will take a toll on all their customers.
Analysts will look for clues about the future in the Big Banks’ loan growth, dealmaking, and credit quality after sweeping tariffs were announced in the U.S. on April 2.
As U.S. banks begin reporting their quarterly earnings on Friday, investors will watch to see whether fears about tariffs are hampering clients’ borrowing appetites and ability to repay loans.
Banks’ results coming soon from the first quarter will matter, but the fallout from April 2, which President Donald Trump dubbed “Liberation Day,” may be more consequential. President Donald Trump’s tariff plans have raised recession risks and triggered sell-offs in stock markets, complicating the outlook for the banking industry.
“While banks might not be directly impacted by tariffs, they are exposed to every industry that is,” Jason Goldberg, an analyst at Barclays, wrote in a note Friday.
The latest bout of uncertainty has hammered bank stocks. The KBW Nasdaq Bank Index (BKX) is down about 18% this year through Tuesday’s close, outpacing the decline in the S&P 500 index, as investors worry that an economic downturn will make it hard for consumers and businesses to repay debts. The KBW Nasdaq index of regional banks or KRX, is off a similar amount.
The last week has “completely upended” expectations for the industry, Scott Siefers, a bank analyst at Piper Sandler, wrote on Monday.
“We doubt we’ll get all the answers we want with earnings, but at least banks will have the chance to respond to the emerging backdrop and to shape expectations,” Siefers said.
Bank CEOs will share updates starting on Friday, when JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC), and Morgan Stanley (MS) report their quarterly earnings. Other megabanks such as Bank of America (BAC) and Citi (C) will follow next week, as will regional banks such as Pittsburgh-based PNC Financial Services Group (PNC).
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon, in his annual letter to shareholders on Monday, already warned that the bank is “very cautious” given the uncertain environment. The effects of the latest trade news may not show up clearly in banks’ backward-looking results, but it will likely effect their outlooks.
“Whether or not the menu of tariffs causes a recession remains in question, but it will slow down growth,” Dimon said, adding that the “quicker this issue is resolved, the better.”
Here are some key themes to watch as banks report earnings.
Just after Trump’s election, bank CEOs were hopeful that optimism from businesses would lead to a boom in loans. But there are “early signs that borrowers are hitting the pause button and pushing out decision making,” Brian Foran, a bank analyst at Truist Securities, wrote in a Monday note.
Business loan growth is hovering around 1% to start the year, Foran wrote, rather than climbing to 4% or even 5%, as is usually the case in spring. Activity, he wrote, is “starting to flat line when it should be ramping.”
Loan activity tends to follow gross domestic product (GDP) trends and should slow because growth expectations have fallen significantly, Barclays’ Goldberg wrote. He and other analysts will closely watch banks’ outlooks for the year ahead and whether they’ll lower expectations for loan activity. Fewer loans will tamp down how much money banks can make this year, as they won’t be able to earn as much interest.
Some banks “might look to keep their guidance in hopes that now that the tariff backdrop is known, companies will act and adjust,” the Barclays analysts said.
It’s not just run-of-the-mill business loans facing lower growth. Dealmaking at banks’ Wall Street operations is also slowing, as corporations shelve plans to acquire competitors or tap capital markets for financing.
Banks had been hoping to earn hefty fees on those deals, helping revenue stay elevated if loan growth remained sluggish.
But several companies have reportedly delayed plans to go public, including the Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) company Klarna, the ticket marketplace StubHub, and the trading platform eToro. Uncertainty has also weighed on merger activity.
Pipelines for deals “are still strong,” the Barclays report said. “The question is, will that fall away or simply be pushed out, as an improved market backdrop is likely needed for realization,” Goldberg wrote.
Market volatility isn’t all bad news for banks, because the major Wall Street trading desks earn money off any buying and selling. But regional banks don’t have as much “air cover” from trading, Goldberg wrote, and could thus take a bigger hit.
If the economy is headed for darker days, borrowers will have a tougher time repaying their loans—whether for an office building or consumer credit card.
Though a recession is still not assured, slower GDP growth will likely force banks to write off loans from borrowers who can no longer repay them, according to Betsy Graseck, a bank analyst at Morgan Stanley.
“We have to expect a slowdown at best,” Graseck wrote Monday in a note to clients, noting that “consumers do not have savings levels to absorb these tariffs and continue spending at pre-tariff levels.”
Losses at banks have stayed benign in recent years, even as high interest rates challenged some borrowers. But now the future is “more of a wildcard,” wrote Piper Sandler’s Siefers.
Even so, banks are coming into any turbulence with “solid capital strength,” he wrote. The industry’s buffers have risen sharply after they proved inadequate during the 2008 financial crisis, prompting regulators to require bigger cushions going forward.
“We are thankful for the group’s strong capital levels,” Siefers said in the report.
