It will be a shortened trading week for financial markets due to Easter holidays in Europe and the United States. While risk-aversion sentiment may continue to influence global market movements, key economic data, including manufacturing and services Purchasing Managers’ Indices (PMIs), and major corporate earnings are expected to play a critical role in shaping future market trends.
S&P Global is scheduled to release its flash manufacturing and services PMIs for April across major economies on Wednesday. These indices measure business activity based on new orders, employment, and confidence. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while a figure below 50 signals contraction.
In March, the eurozone’s manufacturing PMI improved to 48.6 from 47.6 in February, marking the mildest contraction since January 2023. Germany and France both recorded notable improvements in manufacturing activity. Germany’s PMI rose to 48.3 from 46.5—the highest since August 2022—while France’s reading came in at 48.5, reflecting the softest downturn in over two years. However, “concerns over geopolitical uncertainty and client spending kept optimism in check,” according to the S&P Global report.
Consensus forecasts suggest that business activity may slow in April due to tariff-related economic uncertainty. The eurozone’s manufacturing PMI is expected to drop to 47.4, with Germany and France forecast to record 47.5 and 47.9, respectively.
The eurozone’s services PMI expanded for the fourth consecutive month in March, with a reading of 51.0, up from 50.6 in February. Germany’s services PMI also posted its fourth consecutive month of expansion, at 50.9. However, the pace of growth slowed as new business declined at the fastest rate in six months amid weak demand and heightened uncertainty. Optimism persisted, driven by Germany’s fiscal expansion, new product launches, and technological progress. In contrast, France’s services sector contracted for the seventh consecutive month, reflecting continued weak demand.
Consensus projections suggest further, albeit softer, growth in April. The eurozone’s services PMI is forecast at 50.4, with Germany and France expected to record 50.3 and 47.6, respectively.
Additionally, Germany’s Ifo Business Climate Index—a leading indicator of economic health—is due on Thursday. The index rose to 86.7 in March, the highest level since July 2023, supported by historic debt reforms that unlocked billions in funding for defence and infrastructure. However, the index is expected to edge lower this month, likely due to the impact of Trump’s newly announced tariffs.
