A North American energy slowdown, especially for onshore U.S. crude oil, is well underway and threatens to worsen both domestically and worldwide amid weaker commodity prices, recession fears, and President Trump’s tariff uncertainty, energy executives and analysts said.

Record-high U.S. oil production already is trending down, and the economic morass is contributing to activity cutbacks, layoffs, and an end to the industry’s resurgence since the pandemic. More budget reductions and downward revisions to guidance are anticipated.

“There’s no question we’re going to be down this year. The magnitude of that decline is what’s in question,” said Marshall Adkins, head of energy for Raymond James. “Most of the oil guys (producers) are scaling back their growth.”

Adkins is particularly critical of Trump’s tariff impacts freezing the economy and energy demand, especially with oil prices in a no-man’s land between healthy and alarming—near four-year lows dating back to early 2021.

“We’re not drilling like crazy. At these prices, you’re meaningfully impairing the U.S. oil and gas industry,” he told Fortune. “It’s just massive uncertainty.”

In a report, Fraser McKay, head of upstream analysis at Wood Mackenzie, said the industry has learned from recent downturns and, with greater financial discipline, is prepared to swiftly cut back as needed. The ripple effects hit the U.S. first, but international projects already are facing delays and budget reductions.

“While the U.S. administration targets both lower prices and ‘Drill, baby, drill,’ we’re more likely to see ‘Delay, baby, delay,’” McKay said.

On a weekly U.S. oil production basis, volumes reached an all-time high of 13.63 million barrels per day in early December and have since dipped to 13.46 million barrels daily as of the week that ended April 18, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

That’s only a 1% decline, and the federal statistics are best estimates, but the data does indicate that U.S. output has plateaued for now, if not notably dropped. Raymond James, for instance, estimates that U.S. oil production already has plunged more than twice as much as the federal estimates.

The nation’s drilling rig count is another story. While the numbers are somewhat deceptive because drilling rigs are increasingly more efficient, the U.S. rig count is down 5.5% in the last 12 months by 34 rigs and only expected to fall further, according to the latest April 17 data from Baker Hughes and Enverus research firm. Worldwide, North America and Latin America account for two-thirds of the losses in global rig counts over 12 months.