Consumer confidence fell for the fifth straight month in April, dropping to its lowest level since the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic as uncertainty surrounding President Trump’s trade policy pushed inflation expectations higher and weighed on the labor outlook.
The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index for April came in at a reading of 86, a significant drop from March’s revised 92.9 reading and short of the 88 reading expected by economists.
The “Present Situation Index,” which measures consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions, fell to 133.5 in April from 134.5 in March.
The “Expectations Index,” which tracks consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions, also fell to 54.4 in April from 65.2 last month. This was the lowest level since October 2011. Historically, a reading below 80 in that category signals a recession in the coming year.
Meanwhile, average 12-month inflation expectations rose to 7% in April — the highest level since November 2022, when the US was grappling with abnormally high price increases.
Notably, the survey was conducted through April 21, which means the time period measured includes President Trump’s shocking “Liberation Day” tariff announcement. Economists say that likely influenced responses due to the event’s national significance and potential impact on consumer perceptions.
“This is telling us that [trade uncertainty] is getting to the consumer,” Yelena Shulyatyeva, senior US economist at The Conference Board, told Yahoo Finance in an interview on Tuesday. “Consumers were very much surprised by the severity of those tariffs. And they actually expect tariffs to affect their finances and their jobs.”
The Conference Board said 32.1% of consumers now expect fewer job opportunities in the next six months, a level not seen since April 2009 during the height of the Great Recession. Adding to those concerns, separate data released Tuesday by the Labor Department showed job openings in March hovered near a four-year low.
“That is a scary thing,” Shulyatyeva said of the worsening job outlook. “We should probably expect a much more significant increases in the unemployment rate.”
As concerns mount over inflation and a weakening job market, outlooks for future income have turned negative for the first time in five years, “suggesting that concerns about the economy have now spread to consumers worrying about their own personal situations,” according to the press release.
